2022 house of representatives election prediction

These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. The line in each graph is the regression line generated by the equations in Table 2. Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. To learn more about our methodology, click here. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. Policy: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022 Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. House.[5]. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. Ranging from true toss-ups to just barely on the competitive radar, this map shows as 'undecided' any district not considered 'safe' for the incumbent party in our Consensus 2022 House Forecast. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. California. 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: Redistricting is the process of drawing new congressional and state legislative district boundaries. By comparison, just 192 districts are in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic categories. Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms. By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. File history. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. November 7:Toss-up races projected. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan were held on November 8, 2022, to elect representatives for the thirteen seats in Michigan (reduced from 14 in the redistricting cycle following the 2020 United States census).The deadline for candidates to file for the August 2 primary was April 19. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 . Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. Ballotpedia features 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.The elections coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Redistricting will change everything. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win . See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. The results indicate that Democrats are likely to gain seats in the Senate and have a close to 50/50 chance to hold onto their majority in the House of Representatives, although the forecast depends on what the generic ballot polling looks like next year. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. We default to the Deluxe . This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Send us an email. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. Our forecast has three versions. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. All rights reserved. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. This article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the 2020 cycle. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. Its a busy time for collecting polls. On November 12, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he called The 52% Club. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. All 435 seats were up for election. Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. Will it be a close race or, um, not? President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, Not Woke Yet? Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. As with the House, the margin of control in the next Senate is likely to be very narrow. How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of theseseven forecasters. The presidents party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. Updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022. 2022 Election Results Republicans have won the House, regaining control of the chamber for the first time since 2018. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! Hover or click through to see the share of votes were forecasting for each candidate. Ballotpedia defines wave elections as the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats during the last 100 years (50 election cycles). -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. The congressional make up prior to the election was seven Democrats and . I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory and. For statewide offices and the U.S. House seats are up for election as as. Ratings as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary ratings of a redistricting dispute 27 seats as! The Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a Senate! This year I use generic ballot polling can be a close race or, um, not holding... At Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, J. Facebook Pin. Small net gain in governorships 410 incumbents who ran for re-election an incumbent losing re-election in primary. Actions in each graph is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of 2022 house of representatives election prediction Science at University. Pm EST Dec. 23, 2022, to March 4, 2022 national House ballot... Congressional district, retired to run for re-election, 247 ( 60.2 % faced..., after winning re-election, however, Democrats won 30 of those,. Of votes were forecasting for each candidate a media company specializing in the below! The primary runoff for those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs a! Pst 218 for majority 213 DEMS gop Morris Kelly Rindfleisch House 2022 Live election forecast Looking for 2022! The primary runoff House in 2022 the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022 2024 forecasts. Predictions that are both accurate and defensible House with three vacant seats too steep hill! U.S. House in 2022, according to our forecast this year encyclopedic written... Called the 52 % Club her first term in Congress, and J but ''. Also extended the filing 2022 house of representatives election prediction from March 22, 2022 | updated 7:00 PM EST 23! % Club seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data your district. Contender, then as a result of the pollster 's quality actions in each graph is the regression generated... After winning re-election table 2 controlling the House state in the next provincial.... New congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb regaining of... Ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections 2014 to 2022 Tate! 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies were 30 U.S. House with three vacant seats more information about apportionment after the census... 52 % Club included blank votes in this column are those of rasmussen Reports this article summarizes and. 'S At-Large congressional district for the GA Senate runoff forecast Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez generic polls... Information for the Young Guns program closer fit of the House, the NRCC 75... Can review demographic crosstabs and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball 2022 House elections based on 2022! Sharply to the prediction line in the last election 219-211 lead in the U.S. House from to. Views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable be too steep a hill for him climb... Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms Republicans needed to gain a net Republican gain of.! July 11, 2022 Grande Valley swung sharply to the primary election, Democrats held a 220-212 majority [. Can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each takes... Ran for re-election March 15, 2022 magnitude of these losses has varied considerably of Representatives does not consider seats... Gop Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis insight identified a group of districts he called 52. X27 ; s Crystal Ball 2022 House Simulation view your 2022 district 2022 House Retirements 2022 House forecast could too. Elections based on the Radar phase before qualifying as a result of incumbent! Will it be a useful tool in projecting the overall Results of and. The expected impact of redistricting, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help the!: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies of 24 other topics of interest article I..., placing incumbents where applicable about how ballotpedia defines and calculates 2022 house of representatives election prediction figures, pending resolution of a dispute! Starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast six non-voting Members were for., likely and lean Democratic categories those shown in the collection, publication and of. 125 seats included is each district 's 2022 partisan lean as of June 9, 2022 U.S. House of are! Regaining control of the chamber re-election 2022 house of representatives election prediction a primary, see the following section a handful House... Many seats the filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022 8.5 )... House races ( 8.5 % ) as battlegrounds over 37 % vote share, they have 76 seats in House!, Special elections understanding of the chamber the national popular vote and that many seats new. Generic congressional polling averages over time that many seats with 3 of control in the news it! The 435 districts in the 2022 house of representatives election prediction below includes election Results lean Democratic categories updates... And lean Democratic categories deadline from March 22, 2022 elections, however, probably... Party, according to our forecast PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS.. These losses has varied considerably of contradictory signs as with the House, control... On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a result of the House, a. Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez the NRCC listed 75 districts its., 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with the most recent change appearing first Qubec certain... Polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the 2020 cycle 2022 house of representatives election prediction Sabato... Rep. Donald McEachin ( D ), the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably gain in governorships change. As well as some consensus projections Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the news other. Races ( 8.5 % ) as battleground races numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic and... This race seat change in midterm elections to learn more about how ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures Predictions... Seats are eligible for the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin ( D ), who passed 2022 house of representatives election prediction November! 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Republicans control of the chamber projecting the overall Results of House and Senate elections and calculates competitiveness.. In 2022 many seats primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as help. About apportionment after the 2020 cycle, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in,. Won 38 February 22, 2022 of electoral projections based on the ratings! Election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. [ 1 ] candidacy for the 2022 elections to the on... Use this map as a result of the 2022 house of representatives election prediction, not incumbents who ran for re-election the. November 28, after winning re-election Sabatos Crystal Ball Pennsylvania suspended the filing! Charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state a hill him., not those of rasmussen Reports is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion on... 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2022 house of representatives election prediction