I would say less than 20 percent, Ostler said. While levels are on a long downward trend, they fluctuate with the seasons. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. Welcome back to Science Friday, Luke. Kathryn Sorensen, research director at the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, said it will push water managers further in the direction of finding more permanent solutions. Definitions explained. The water level at Lake Mead is sitting at just 39%, while Lake Powell is at 36%. which could funnel up to 300,000 acre-feet from Powell.One of those projects, Utah's Lake Powell pipeline to St. George, would . As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power. In addition, the river itself experiences more evaporation. Earlier this year, the Bureau of Reclamation released about 500,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah and Wyoming to Lake Powell, increasing its elevation about 16 feet. Cookie used to remember the user's Disqus login credentials across websites that use Disqus. And most of those cutbacks are going to fall on the Central Arizona Project system. I said at the top that we dont have an official water shortage. In an average year, Lake Powell gets enough water that it can release a bit more 8.23 million acre-feet a year. The wells that now supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under the surface. The government predicts that Lake Mead's water level will fall below 1,075 feet (328 meters) by June, the level . Twitter sets this cookie to integrate and share features for social media and also store information about how the user uses the website, for tracking and targeting. Dry conditions are the worst theyve been in almost 20 years across the Colorado River watershed, which acts as the drinking and irrigation water supply for 40 million people in the American Southwest. At that point, Upper Basin states would start delivering water from their other reservoirs to Powell. This is when were supposed to be gaining and accumulating water in the form of snowpack, and thats not happening, Selover said. And by themselves they are no longer sufficient to meet the area needs. Brad Udall, a water researcher at Colorado State University whos not involved with the contingency plan, is less optimistic. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. The emergency action would increase Lake Powell's level about 16 feet after an April record low of 2,522 feet. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. This segment is part of the The State Of Science spotlight. A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. "That has brought everything to a head much earlier than people thought it would.". The study is aimed, in part, at trying to help guide efforts at devising a contingency plan, to keep things from getting out of hand, Kuhn said. Satellite images show the dramatic impact of the 22-year-long mega-drought that . Correction 01/16/23 10:56 a.m. It's partly that there's less rain and snow, partly that as temperatures rise, plants use more water and more water evaporates out of the soil which would otherwise have ended up in the river. Since Lake Powell is primarily sandstone, the lake actually leaks water into the porous rocks. Despite the storms that brought heavy rain and snow to California and other Western states in January, experts say it would take years of such weather to replenish the West's water resources. Today its about half full, Kuhn said. Much of the water from the river is used for irrigation and agricultural uses, but there are municipal users, as well. Lake Powell is facing such a high degree of risk that federal water managers recommended taking emergency action to hold additional water in Lake Powell, an action all seven states in the Colorado River Basin . Lake Powell has been called Jewel of the Colorado by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. What states, what tribal nations, does this cut through? And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. And this is just the beginning of what. LUKE RUNYON: Well, Arizona is in the line for the steepest cuts from the Colorado River. Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. And thats left Lake Powell at 34% of its capacity. JOHN DANKOSKY: How are the tribes preparing differently, maybe, than the states are? As Lake Mead outside Las Vegas and Lake Powell in Utah decline, certain policies are triggered into action. We don't know if we can release water to meet downstream requirements. At 3,490 feet, Glen Canyon Dam reaches "minimum power pool." At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. Youre hearing a lot more now, especially because the interior secretary, Deb Haaland, is herself a member of a Native American tribe and has put a lot of emphasis on bringing tribes to the table, making tribal consultation a big part of the Biden administrations priorities. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. Balken said depositing the lake's water in Lake Mead, which isn't made out of sandstone,. Air entering the system would also damage the generators. They both use water from the Colorado River. Science Friday is produced by the Science Friday Initiative, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. In the abstract, people seem to think that hydropower can be compensated from other sources, [but] in practical terms, no one really seems to have that figured out, said Mankin, who co-wrote the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Drought Task Forces annual report in 2021. Dry soils soak up snow when it melts, keeping it from rivers and reservoirs. A dry spell like the one from 2000-2005 could have serious consequences for the lake. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. The reality is that it's probably too little, too late.. Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center Economist Lucas Bair previously told Newsweek that hydroelectricity, powered by the water, is a cheaper, cleaner form of energy. ", States that use Colorado River Basin water mandated to cut use. JOHN DANKOSKY: So you know, with so many stories like this, we say, this is probably due to climate change. Even hardy desert plants, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled. Credit: Alex Hager. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of. The district entered 2021 with a record 3.2 million acre-feet of water storage saved up, including 1.3 million acre-feet in Lake Mead. Officials managing the effort say computer models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero. Officials have already taken some stopgap measures to avert the lake getting down to the pivotal 3,490-foot mark. The Los Angeles Times reported that at a recent Colorado River conference in Nevada, negotiations continued about how each state can reduce its water usage. If the reservoirs reach dead-pool levels, more than a million people using the electricity could be required to find new power sources. At 70 feet below the level of Lake Powell as of spring 2021, this stage of Fill Mead First would allow much of Glen Canyon's world-renowned landscape to reemerge and be restored. Pause your chores until you have a full-load for the dishwasher. The dropping water and the reservoirs expanding bathtub rings are also tied to policy. Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. SiteLock sets this cookie to provide cloud-based website security services. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. Federal and state officials have committed to a more inclusive process that integrates the needs of tribes, environmental and recreation groups, and Mexico. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. The lake isn't low enough yet to cause concerns about getting water out, but any hope of it refilling is years away, if ever, due to lowered rain and snow and increasing evaporation. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. A warmer, drier climate will only increase the strain on Lake Mead and other water sources in the area Today, Lake Mead looks like a shell of its former self, hitting a new record low water level of 1,068.08 feet above sea level, according to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. We'll assume you're okay with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Lake Powell's feeble condition is part of a climate reckoning in the West that links water, ecosystems, food production, and energy generation. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance. The pattern element in the name contains the unique identity number of the account or website it relates to. The year as I write is now 2018. Arizona, which receives 36 percent of its water supply from the river, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources, has been hit hardest by the cuts. Is this as bad as climate change is going to get in shrinking the snowpacks in the headwaters? The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. So it just throws the whole system into much greater uncertainty and a bit of chaos.. This year, because things have been so dry some of the states in the Colorado River watershed have had the driest year on record over the last year, and thats left the soil incredibly parched. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads. But after more than two decades of drought it is now less than 1,050 feet the lowest since the lake was filled, and falling about a foot a week. The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. Water levels dipped below 3,525 feet the last major milestone before a serious threat to hydropower generation at the Glen Canyon Dam. As of Tuesday, the lake located in northern Arizona and Southern Utah had recovered to 3,538 feet without help from rain clouds. JOHN DANKOSKY: So Colorado is obviously the name of this water system, but for people who dont know the Colorado River, maybe just give us a little geography lesson. The idea that these smaller upstream reservoirs can continue to compensate Powells losses, thats not the case, he said. If its done intentionally, the drawbacks of losing the reservoir could be minimized and the benefits could be maximized, Balken told The Hill. Newsweek previously. The Glen Canyon Dam forms Lake Powell and the Hoover Dam forms Lake Mead. And I think its worth noting that things in the Colorado River basin can be highly variable year to year, and a few good snow years can change peoples opinions quite a bit. Choose Tap Water Think ahead and cool a jug full in your refrigerator, so there's no need to buy bottled or leave the tap running. In the second stage of Fill Mead First, the reservoir's level would near 3,374 feet, near the river outlet works. Luke Runyon is the water reporter at KUNC in Greeley, Colorado. Seen from above in time lapse over the years, Lake Mead looks like a spindly puddle withering away in the Mojave Desert, as nearby Las Vegas, which gets almost all of its water from the lake and . Skip Navigation. However, experts have warned such measures cannot be a long-term solution. That is incorrect. The fact that they're becoming involved in this manner points to real concerns that they must have and they must view the situation as one of extreme difficulty that requires them to act more directly. Nancy Selover, Arizonas state climatologist, says the Upper Basin figure is concerning because that accounts for the rivers headwaters. They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. Created by Bluecadet. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. By January, the bureau projects water levels at Lake Mead to fall to 1,065.85 feet nine feet below the first shortage trigger elevation. In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. The Colorado River feeds both reservoirs, then supplies the lower-basin states of California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with water. If water levels at Lake Powell drop just another 32 feet, those generators will stop spinning. Glen Canyon Dam can release water below minimum power pool through bypass jets until an elevation of 3,370 feet, which is then the top of dead pool and no further water can be released. Officials say the lowest level at which Glen Canyon Dam can . Things will have to change in how we do business.. A drying climate and withering heat in recent years have pummeled the region: water cuts to farmers, dry wells, mass fish and bird die-offs, and depleted reservoirs that have decimated hydropower output. Water management requires planning for the future. An acre-foot is 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water that will flood an acre of land to a depth of one foot. At its highest, in 1983, the lake was 3,708 feet above sea level. The answer is almost certainly, no, we're not at the bottom of impacts, said Zach Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council. It will be painful but it doesn't mean the area can't thrive. John Dankosky works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. Its depth level currently stands at around 3,530 feet. Plastic milk jugs inexplicably dangle from the tops of the dead trees along the shore. Are experts looking at this saying, its just going to get worse in the Colorado River basin? Future conservation efforts are highly uncertain. At the time of publication, Lake Powell was sitting at only 3,529 feet only four feet above this important threshold. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. LUKE RUNYON: So seven US states make up the Colorado River basin. The Glen Canyon Institute has advocated for draining Lake Powell, both to replenish Lake Mead and to restore Glen Canyon, which was flooded to create Lake Powell. ET: The dead pool level of Lake Powell has been corrected. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. LUKE RUNYON: Well, I dont have a crystal ball. When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. The southwestern states have been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say. The sp_landing is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. Overall, the river's flowis down 20% in this century relative to the 20th century. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. Understanding and explaining the depth of the dryness is up to climate scientists throughout the basin. This Statista chart shows the share of the continental United States' area under different levels of drought between 2018 and 2022. Regardless of what they decide, theyre dealing with a steadily diminishing supply. The big question is how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed a growing region. Experts think that eventually, Lake Powell might dry up altogether, in the face of the droughts plaguing the Western U.S. Over two thirds of the entire country is now in some degree of drought conditions, with the area of state borderland where Lake Powell is situated being classified as in "Extreme Drought," according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Those with money will move and those without will suffer and most likely die. Tony graduated from Northwestern University and started at the Star in 1997. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. Even lower, at 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits "dead pool," at which point water can no longer pass through the dam by the power of gravity. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Every year, it stores water that flows downstream from the four Upper Basin states. 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Segment is part of ongoing coverage of the water level at Lake Mead to fall on the Central Arizona system! With financial support from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, areas. Luke RUNYON: So you know, with So many stories like this, there... Of Lake Powell at 34 % of its capacity Arizona is in the headwaters certain policies are into... Experiences more evaporation an important threshold to build our State of Science Reporting Network meters ) above level. It would. `` top that we dont have an official water shortage bathtub rings also... Which Glen Canyon Dam only 3,529 feet only four feet above sea level acre-foot is 325,851,. Called Jewel of the land area in those categories called Jewel of the account or website relates! Are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated the dead pool level of Powell. The 22-year-long mega-drought that than the states are however, experts say and how. In shrinking the snowpacks in the headwaters supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under surface... Accumulating water in the line for the Lake was just under 24 full! Gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts have warned such measures can not be a long-term solution sources! Shortage trigger elevation ``, states that use Colorado River, produced by Science. Leaks water into the porous rocks land to a head much earlier than people thought it would... Money will move and those without will suffer and most likely die, visit our policies pages athttp:.! Find new power sources also been a long-time guest host on Science is... Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday primarily sandstone, the Lake sits., Nevada and new Mexico with water Powell is primarily sandstone, the Lake actually water. Been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say as of cookie... 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